We use cookies and other data for a number of reasons, such as keeping FT Sites reliable and secure, personalising content and ads, providing social media features and to analyse how our Sites are used. Equity investors are taking it for granted. Bookies are putting money on it. And even the international media are taking it as given. Firstly, analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities say the markets have assumed the BJP will get at least seats and the National Democratic Alliance about altogether.
The markets are rejoicing over a series of opinion polls that show the BJP gaining support — but these surveys are far from reliable. In exit polls wrongly predicted that the BJP would win out and after the votes were counted the benchmark Sensex index dropped 11 per cent in a day, reeling from the shock.
Even in , when exit polls managed to correctly gauge the winning party, they underestimated just how much the Congress Party would win by, sending the Sensex up 17 per cent in a day. As analysts at Trusted Sources, the emerging market researcher, said in a recent note to clients:.
Any shortfall in seats for the BJP could embolden potential allies to demand a less controversial prime ministerial candidate from the party; if the BJP were to refuse to meet that demand, political instability could follow. But there is also a 10 per cent chance that India will get a BJP-led coalition government in which another BJP leader is prime minister.
The BJP must campaign and select candidates carefully, as it seems that a large part of the electorate votes for a local candidate, rather than basing their vote on the prime ministerial candidate or the wider political party.
